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Energy & Carbon Modeling



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body<p><br /></p>

 A calibrated energy model should play a central role in building out a decarbonization plan because it provides insights on:

  • Current building energy and carbon profiles, and costs
  • Potential energy, carbon and cost savings of energy conservation measures (ECMs)
  • The impact of groups of ECMs, and the order in which they should be implemented over time.

The steps to follow include:

  • An initial energy model is developed using commonly available building information such as architectural floorplans, MEP schedule sheets, and BMS sequences of operation. 
  • The initial model is then refined and “calibrated” to the building’s real utility data for each utility consumed, creating a baseline condition that ECM’s will be compared against. 
  • The baseline energy model is used as a test bed for individual ECMs to understand potential energy, carbon and cost impacts. 
  • Evaluate the financial performance of each ECM. These results will be used to identify strategies that are economically viable and should be considered further.  
  • Those ECMs that are economically viable on their own may be grouped together with other ECMs to help build a holistic business case for system optimization and maximum carbon reduction. 
  • During the evaluation process, the project team should take the evolving emission factors associated with utilities such as electricity and steam, as well as the impact of rising average and design day temperatures/humidity, into account.

Key outputs from the energy modeling workflow should include data driven charts showing energy end use breakdown and costs, carbon footprint of each utility, building carbon emissions vs. LL97 targets and fines, and who "owns" the carbon footprint (i.e. tenants, building operations).It is important to note that not all energy models are created equal. For a deep energy retrofit project, the accuracy of the energy model should align with ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1. Code or LEED energy models that were developed for the building in the past are not appropriate for this effort.  

You can learn more about building energy modeling here.

Below is a selection of the energy modeling software packages used to support the case study findings presented in this Playbook, and throughout the industry. 

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titleEnergy Modeling Software Packages

eQuest DesignBuilder DOE-2 EnergyPlus OpenStudio


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body<h1><span style="color: #003366;">Build the Initial Energy Model</span></h1><hr /><p><span style="color: #003366;">Building an initial baseline energy model starts with commonly available energy information such as that found on monthly utilities bills. Combining that information with Building Management System (BMS) data allows one to develop insights about the building&apos;s operation and energy usage.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong>INPUTS</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><span class="TextRun SCXW256333377 BCX0"><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW256333377 BCX0">Inputs for this task include the well-organized compilation of information and data collected during the Discovery Phase. Please refer to the &ldquo;Learn the Building&rdquo; section for specific information of what should be collected. </span></span><span class="EOP SCXW256333377 BCX0">&nbsp;</span></span></p><p><strong>OUTPUTS</strong>&nbsp;</p><p><span>Deliverables from the baseline energy model work include the following:</span><span>&nbsp;</span></p><ul><li><span>Building&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Consumption&nbsp;and&nbsp;Detailed End&nbsp;Use Breakdowns&nbsp;</span><span>[Graphic]</span><span>&nbsp;</span></li><li><span>Documented Baseline System Assumptions</span></li></ul><p><strong>ACTIVITIES</strong></p><p><strong><span><span style="color: #ff9900;">Define and Understand the Purpose of the Energy Model</span></span></strong></p><p><span>The purpose of&nbsp;energy modeling&nbsp;in this context&nbsp;is to&nbsp;provide&nbsp;high-accuracy estimates&nbsp;of&nbsp;potential energy, cost and carbon savings&nbsp;for energy conservation measures&nbsp;(ECMs)&nbsp;under&nbsp;consideration.&nbsp;The energy model should&nbsp;incorporate&nbsp;site&nbsp;weather data&nbsp;for a typical year&nbsp;as well as&nbsp;detailed&nbsp;information about building&nbsp;geometry, building construction,&nbsp;systems,&nbsp;operations, and occupancy. The energy model will use&nbsp;this information to simulate the building&rsquo;s energy consumption for every hour of the year. </span><span>&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>Code or LEED energy models that may have been created for the building during its initial design and construction should not be used in deep energy retrofit study efforts&nbsp;because they do not reflect the actual performance of the building under study.</span><span>&nbsp;</span></p><p><em><span style="color: #ff00ff;">The goal at this phase of the project is not to create an exact replica of the building&mdash;doing so would require modeling effort and investment in building metering that does not yield improvements in model accuracy that will improve decision making. Instead, energy models routinely include simplifications that maintain fidelity to metered data and an appropriate level of detail to form a basis of comparison for ECMs under consideration </span>- <span style="color: #ff00ff;">Italics: FOR DISCUSSION</span></em></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em> </em><span style="color: #ff9900;">Create the&nbsp;Baseline&nbsp;Model </span><span style="color: #ff9900;">&nbsp;</span></strong></span></p><p><span>The baseline model represents the&nbsp;current&nbsp;systems and&nbsp;operations of the building.&nbsp;Energy savings for all proposed ECMs will be&nbsp;calculated relative&nbsp;to the baseline model performance. &nbsp;</span><span>&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>The baseline&nbsp;energy model should be informed by the information collected during the Discovery and Investigation Phase. In instances where data is not available, the energy modeler will need to make assumptions&nbsp;based on the building program, systems, or a basic understanding of&nbsp;building operation. Temporary, representative monitoring can also be applied to test assumptions.&nbsp;Together this information can be used to allocate energy consumption to specific systems and inform&nbsp;control sequences and operating schedules used in the&nbsp;baseline&nbsp;model. &nbsp;</span><span>&nbsp;</span></p><p><em><span style="color: #ff00ff;">The energy modeling effort should be focused on refining the load breakdown&nbsp;and end uses relative to one another rather than on modeling each floor and system explicitly.&nbsp;Certain simplifications can be made to accurately model the usage&nbsp;pattern without modeling specifics&nbsp;&ndash; this allows baseline systems,&nbsp;ECMs, and any future&nbsp;modifications&nbsp;to be&nbsp;modeled more quickly.&nbsp;Instead of modeling each&nbsp;room and tenant floor explicitly, spaces with similar functions&nbsp;(internal loads and schedules),&nbsp;exposures&nbsp;(envelope loads), and system types&nbsp;can be grouped together</span>. <span style="color: #ff00ff;">Italics: FOR DISCUSSION- leave or remove; is this too technical?</span></em></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong><span style="color: #ff9900;">Make Necessary Adjustments to the Baseline Model</span>&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p><span>The baseline model energy consumption should be&nbsp;adjusted to account for the following:</span><span>&nbsp;</span></p><ul><li><strong><em><span>Weather</span></em></strong><span> -&nbsp;Typical weather data for the site can be&nbsp;modeled using&nbsp;</span><a href="https://data.nrel.gov/submissions/156"><span>TMY3 data files</span></a><span>, which capture and compare typical performance and eliminate&nbsp;any&nbsp;extreme weather event&nbsp;effects&nbsp;that may have occurred in the baseline year. TMY3 files are produced by the&nbsp;National Renewable Energy Laboratory and can be freely accessed and downloaded from the&nbsp;</span><a href="https://energyplus.net/weather"><span>EnergyPlus&nbsp;website.</span></a><span>&nbsp;</span></li><li><strong><em><span>Occupancy&nbsp;(Lease Turnover or&nbsp;COVID) </span></em></strong><span>- The baseline energy model should be adjusted to account for any fluctuations in building occupancy that are expected to occur over the study period. For example, tenant lease turnover schedules should be collected during the Discovery Phase and accounted for in the baseline model. Similarly, any disruptions to building occupancy, such as those experienced during the COVID 19 global pandemic, should be captured in the baseline model. In order to&nbsp;understand the full magnitude of ECM impacts, it is important to separate&nbsp;energy reductions resulting from ECMs versus those resulting from lower occupancy levels.</span><span>&nbsp;</span></li><li><strong><em><span>Planned Upgrades &ndash; </span></em></strong><span>The baseline model should be adjusted to account for any planned projects that will impact the building&rsquo;s energy consumption. By capturing these savings in the baseline model, the project team will avoid projecting ECM savings that are no longer available because they have already been captured by planned projects. </span><span>&nbsp;</span></li></ul><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong><span style="color: #ff9900;"> Document Assumptions and Review Initial Results With Greater Project Team</span> </strong> &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXW220830082"><span class="NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXW220830082">After the initial baseline model has been built&nbsp;and adjusted, the energy modeler should review his/her/their assumptions and the resulting&nbsp;load breakdowns&nbsp;with the project team. The modeler should then solicit feedback from the&nbsp;engineers and&nbsp;building operators&nbsp;who have greater insight into the current&nbsp;building operation and&nbsp;systems&nbsp;design.&nbsp;Feedback should be incorporated&nbsp;into&nbsp;the next iteration of baseline model.&nbsp;The&nbsp;feedback loop between the energy modeler and the building team&nbsp;will be an iterative process that will&nbsp;continue throughout the duration of the project as more information is collected from the&nbsp;building.</span></span><span class="EOP BCX0 SCXW220830082">&nbsp;</span></span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong>LESSONS LEARNED &amp; KEY CONSIDERATIONS&nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></span></p><ul><li><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Determine&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Model&nbsp;Level of&nbsp;Detail&nbsp;and&nbsp;Input&nbsp;Assumptions</em> - </strong></span>Some of the most important decisions to be made during this stage include determining the appropriate level of modeling detail and making a judgement on how to best model the building features to facilitate future modifications. While these decisions will primarily be made by the energy modeler given their expertise, engineers may provide valuable input by highlighting systems of interest and potential ECMs. Where modeling assumptions are made due to a lack of input information, these should be shared with the engineers so that they may be reviewed and corrected as the engineers familiarize themselves with the existing building systems and operations. This line of communication is critical for ensuring that the final modeled savings are reasonably accurate and are neither over nor underestimated.</li></ul><ul><li><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Invest in the Calibration of the Baseline Model - </em></strong></span>It is very difficult to establish where you want to go without understanding where you are now.&nbsp;It is important&nbsp;not to undervalue or gloss over&nbsp;the initial data collection phase, testing, and on-the-ground observations for the following reasons:&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul><ol><li style="list-style-type: none;"><ol><li><span style="color: #003366;">The energy model outputs are only as good as the inputs, so the less assumptions that are input into the model, the more accurate energy, cost, and CO<sub>2</sub> &nbsp;emission savings will be.&nbsp;For example, in energy simulations for&nbsp;new buildings the total energy consumption is&nbsp;highly&nbsp;sensitive to operating schedules&nbsp;which are a constant between baseline and proposed models.&nbsp;Together with weather data,&nbsp;assumed&nbsp;operating schedules&nbsp;and use intensities&nbsp;are&nbsp;a&nbsp;key variable&nbsp;energy modelers&nbsp;use&nbsp;to calibrate&nbsp;the baseline model.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></li><li><span style="color: #003366;">It&nbsp;is an important step to determine ECMs. We typically find easy and financially attractive ECMs from analyzing data and just getting to know how each system is &ldquo;actually&rdquo; operating. &nbsp;</span></li><li><span style="color: #003366;">Learning more about your building is never a wasted effort and can minimize maintenance costs in the future. &nbsp;</span></li><li><span style="color: #003366;">While team members&rsquo; heuristics can be immensely helpful, cognitive bias can lead to inappropriate extrapolation or focusing on a familiar or well understood, but fundamentally less significant aspect of the building&rsquo;s operations or performance.&nbsp;A mechanical engineer might&nbsp;focus&nbsp;on heating system decarbonization since&nbsp;they know how to solve that&nbsp;problem, but&nbsp;cutting unoccupied IT plug loads&mdash;a problem a mechanical engineer is less familiar with&mdash;might&nbsp;have a more significant carbon emissions impact.&nbsp;</span></li></ol></li></ol><ul><li><span style="color: #003366;"><strong><em>Sync Energy Modeling Assumptions with Site Observations - </em></strong></span>Even in well-maintained buildings with stringent base-building and tenant standards, expect to uncover exceptions and anomalies. Sometimes equipment is shut off and sequences are manually overwritten because the system was never properly commissioned, integrated with the BMS, or simply due to a lack of understanding of the whole system impact. This is especially true for older existing buildings that have had operations team turnover resulting in a loss of institutional knowledge over the years. For the energy model to accurately capture savings for ECMs, the baseline model must reflect real-life operation. Design documents&mdash;even as-built&mdash;only provide a starting point for the model.&nbsp; &nbsp;</li></ul><ul><li><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Understand that Baseline Model Calibration is an Iterative Process - </em></strong></span>Given that the&nbsp;baseline&nbsp;energy model calibration is a continuous and iterative process&nbsp;that will evolve with ECM development and site observations, the following should be considered during the initial modeling:&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul><ol><li style="list-style-type: none;"><ol><li><span style="color: #003366;">Keep the energy model flexible&nbsp;(simple inputs, controls, schedules)&nbsp;so that if changes are needed, the model can be adapted and&nbsp;adjusted quickly. &nbsp;</span></li><li><span style="color: #003366;">Accept that perfection is the enemy of good progress. Model calibration is guaranteed to change as more information about the building becomes available. Welcome iteration. Set reasonable expectations for level of modeling and calibration effort aligned with the project schedule and status. While not directly applicable to BIM LOD statements can provide guidance on how to conceptualize these expectations.</span></li></ol></li></ol>

Build and Calibrate the Initial Energy Model


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An energy model is developed in multiple phases. In the first phase, the energy modeler must build an initial model that captures the geometry, material attributes, occupancy types, MEP systems and basic information about the building’s operations. The energy modeler should also include surrounding buildings that may impact sun exposure on the different facades of the building under study. This initial model will produce a rough estimate of how the building performs every hour during the year. Then in the next phase, the energy modeler must hone the model’s accuracy by “calibrating” the initial model to measured utility data and detailed building operations information. Code or LEED energy models that may have been created for the building during its initial design and construction should not be used in deep energy retrofit study efforts because they do not reflect the actual performance of the building under study. 


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titleLearn more about how to build the initial energy model

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Inputs for this task include the well-organized compilation of information and data collected during the Discovery Phase. Refer to the “Learn the Building” section for specific information of what should be collected.

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titleACTIVITIES

Define and Understand the Purpose of the Energy Model

The purpose of energy modeling in this context is to provide high-accuracy estimates of potential energy, cost and carbon savings for energy conservation measures (ECMs) under consideration. The energy model should incorporate site weather data for a typical year as well as detailed information about building geometry, building construction, systems, operations, and occupancy. The energy model will use this information to simulate the building’s energy consumption for every hour of the year.  

Code or LEED energy models that may have been created for the building during its initial design and construction should not be used in deep energy retrofit study efforts because they do not reflect the actual performance of the building under study. 

The goal at this phase of the project is not to create an exact replica of the building—doing so would require modeling effort and investment in building metering that does not yield improvements in model accuracy that will improve decision making. Instead, energy models routinely include simplifications that maintain fidelity to metered data and an appropriate level of detail to form a basis of comparison for ECMs under consideration.

Create the Initial Energy Model   

The initial energy model should reflect the basic components of the building including geometry, HVAC systems, occupancy, and basic building operations. The initial model will generate an energy profile for the building that can be compared to measured utility data for calibration purposes.

Vornado Energy Model Image 1Vornado Energy Model Image 2Vornado Energy Model Image 3


Calibrate the Initial Model to Measured Data 

Calibrating the initial energy model is an iterative process intended to align the simulated building performance with measured utility data. Calibration should occur across all utilities and should apply to demand in addition to consumption. At the end of the calibration effort, simulated energy performance for the building’s existing condition should be consistent with measured building performance within +/- 10. Exceptions to this rule may be allowed for situations such as a chance in building use, or the impact of COVID. 

Vornado Actual Energy Consumption vs. Simulation Energy Consumption

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The output of this task will be a calibrated energy model that accurately reflects the building existing conditions within a reasonable margin of error. This calibrated model is the foundation of the Baseline Energy model discussed in the next section.

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titleIN PRACTICE - CASE STUDY EXAMPLES

Playbook Partner 

Deliverables 

Empire State Building

Click here 

PENN 1

Click here

100 Avenue of Americas 

Click here 

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titleLESSONS LEARNED & KEY CONSIDERATIONS

  • Determine energy model accuracy expectations early – Energy model accuracy can vary widely. For a deep energy retrofit study, the energy model should be highly accurate and align with ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1. Building management teams should set model accuracy expectations with the energy modeler at the onset of the project. This will help inform how assumptions are made and where the modeler should or should not simplify certain aspects of the model. 
  • Energy model calibration takes time but is worth the investment - Calibrating the initial energy model is a continuous and iterative process that can span multiple days or weeks depending on the complexity of the building. This time investment is well worth it because the quality of the energy modeling results is directly dependent on the quality of the calibration effort.  
  • Sync energy modeling assumptions with site observations - Even well-maintained buildings with stringent base-building and tenant standards have operational nuances and anomalies. Equipment may be shut off or sequences may be manually overwritten because the system wasn’t commissioned, wasn’t correctly integrated with the BMS, or was causing a localized issue that required a quick fix. This is especially true for older existing buildings that have had operations team turnover resulting in a loss of institutional knowledge over the years. For the energy model to accurately capture savings for ECMs, the calibrated model must reflect real-life operation. The project’s energy modeler should capture these nuances in the calibrated model whenever possible. 
  • Perfection is the enemy of "good enough" - The energy model will never perfectly simulate the performance of the building. There will also be a margin of error that comes from very specific nuances in building construction or operation that can’t be captured by a simulation-based software. The project team should set reasonable expectations for the level of modeling and calibration effort that aligns with AANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 but also conforms to the project schedule and status. 
  • Share model visualization with the project team – Energy modeling can be a complex topic that may seem inaccessible to non-technical audiences. To maintain good project team engagement during the energy modeling phase, the energy modeler should prepare and share data visualizations that can help tell the story of how the building uses energy. Graphs, rendering, and infographics are great examples of visual assets that can demystify the energy modeling process.  

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body<h1>Finalize the Baseline Energy Model</h1><hr /><p><br /></p>

Create the Baseline Energy Model


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The baseline model represents the current systems and operations of the building, adjusted for “typical” weather conditions and other criteria. Energy savings for all proposed ECMs will be calculated relative to the baseline model performance.  


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titleLearn more about how to create the baseline energy model

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titleINPUTS

Inputs for this task include: 

  • The calibrated energy model 
  • TMY weather data 
  • List of planned upgrades, tenant lease turnover schedules 

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Make Necessary Adjustments to the Baseline Model - To create a baseline energy model, the calibrated energy model consumption should be adjusted to account for the following: 

  • Weather - Typical weather data for the site can be modeled using TMY3 data files, which capture and compare typical performance and eliminate any extreme weather event effects that may have occurred in the baseline year. TMY3 files are produced by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and can be freely accessed and downloaded from the EnergyPlus website. 
  • Occupancy (Lease Turnover or COVID) - The baseline energy model should be adjusted to account for any fluctuations in building occupancy that are expected to occur over the study period. For example, tenant lease turnover schedules should be collected during the Discovery Phase and accounted for in the baseline model. Similarly, any disruptions to building occupancy, such as those experienced during the COVID 19 global pandemic, should be captured in the baseline model. In order to understand the full magnitude of ECM impacts, it is important to separate energy reductions resulting from ECMs versus those resulting from lower occupancy levels. 
  • Planned Upgrades – The baseline model should be adjusted to account for any planned projects that will impact the building’s energy consumption. By capturing these savings in the baseline model, the project team will avoid projecting ECM savings that are no longer available because they have already been captured by planned projects.  

The baseline model represents “business as usual” building energy consumption and associated energy cost. It is the reference point used to determine the energy savings of potential ECMs and track progress towards reaching project objectives. 

Generate Detailed End-Use Breakdowns – Once the baseline energy model is complete, the project team can begin to gain additional insight into how the building uses energy. A particularly useful output of the model is a detailed end-use breakdown like the one shown below:

ESRT ESB Energy Consumption BreakdownVornado PENN 1 Energy Consumption Breakdown

The energy modeler will be able to analyze this end use breakdown and identify systems that appear to be high energy consumers. Hypotheses should be vetted by the engineer and facilities team based on their understanding of the building.

Document Assumptions and Review Initial Results with the Team - After the initial baseline model has been built, the energy modeler should review his/her/their assumptions and the resulting load breakdowns with the project team. The modeler should then solicit feedback from the engineers and building operators who have greater insight into the current building operation and systems design. Feedback should be incorporated into the next iteration of baseline model. The feedback loop between the energy modeler and the building team will be an iterative process that will continue throughout the duration of the project as more information is collected from the building. 

Overlay Carbon Emissions - Once the baseline energy consumption results are refined, the associated operational carbon emissions can be calculated by multiplying the annual energy consumption by a fuel-specific carbon coefficient. Carbon coefficients represent the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of different energy sources and are used to determine a building’s total greenhouse gas emissions in tons of CO2equivalent. This analysis will identify the primary contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in terms of fuel type, system, and ownership (end-user that is driving the demand). 

Refine the Preliminary List of ECMs - At this point, the energy modeler and engineer should work together to refine the preliminary list ECMs that was developed in the “Build the BAU Base Case” task. The additional information gleaned from the detailed end use breakdown should be used to validate the initial list of measures and to identify new areas of focus that were not identified in early phases of the project. 

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Deliverables from the baseline energy model work include the following: 

  • Baseline energy model is a reference for potential energy, carbon and cost savings   
  • Building energy consumption and detailed end use breakdowns 
  • Documented baseline system assumptions  
  • Finalized List of ECMs for study in the energy model

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titleIN PRACTICE - CASE STUDY EXAMPLES

Playbook Partner 

Deliverables 

Empire State Building

Click here 

PENN 1

Click here 

100 Avenue of Americas

Click here

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titleLESSONS LEARNED & KEY CONSIDERATIONS

  • Document and review input assumptions – A robust energy model can be a reusable tool that can serve the building team for many years after the initial deep energy retrofit study. To ensure the information within the model is accurate and up to date, any inputs and assumptions should be documented and shared with the building management team. This will give the team the opportunity to correct any assumptions that do not align with the actual operation of the building and will create a log where inputs can be revised and updated as the building evolves.

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body<h1>Analyze Individual ECMs</h1><hr /><p class="auto-cursor-target"><span style="color: #ff00ff;">from previous &quot;Analyze All ECMs &amp; Establish Technical Potential&quot; section</span></p><p class="auto-cursor-target"><span style="color: #003366;">In this phase, the energy modeler will run all ECMs and extract associated energy savings for each. This information will allow the project team to vet the initial results, determine additional data collection requirements, compare the impact of competing ECMs, and establish a theoretical minimum energy consumption level for the building.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong>OUTPUTS</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">This phase of work will produce&nbsp;initial energy&nbsp;savings,&nbsp;CO<sub>2</sub> reductions, and energy cost savings for individual ECMs. Based on this initial review and analysis, the team will identify further data collection required to refine the modeling assumptions and improve the accuracy of the outputs. A review of the energy savings results of mutually exclusive ECMs will give the project team actionable information regarding which competing options are most impactful.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Given all this information, the maximum technical potential for energy savings and carbon reduction in the building can first be assessed. This will give the project team the first indication of what it will take to meet the project objectives, in terms of how many ECMs may need to be implemented. The energy model will also produce energy cost savings for each measure which can be used to inform preliminary financial analyses.</span></p><p><strong>ACTIVITIES </strong> &nbsp;</p><p><span style="color: #ff9900;"><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Run Energy&nbsp;Conservation Measures (ECMs)&nbsp;and&nbsp;Analyze&nbsp;Results</em> </strong></span> &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"> Once all&nbsp;ECMs&nbsp;are&nbsp;explicitly defined and the modeling strategy has been finalized,&nbsp;the&nbsp;proposed&nbsp;energy&nbsp;model&nbsp;including&nbsp;the&nbsp;ECMs&nbsp;can be run and compared to the baseline.&nbsp;The&nbsp;energy modeler&nbsp;will&nbsp;extract energy savings&nbsp;for each ECM&nbsp;from the proposed model,&nbsp;which&nbsp;will&nbsp;enable the team to&nbsp;study the&nbsp;individual&nbsp;impact&nbsp;of each ECM&nbsp;and vet the results.&nbsp;Energy savings for individual ECMs should be compared to industry&nbsp;experience&nbsp;to gauge their validity.&nbsp;When surprising results arise, the team must explore&nbsp;why&nbsp;and either justify the inputs or modify them&nbsp;according to additional information.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">It is likely that assumptions may need to be revised&nbsp;after this initial review of the results.&nbsp;Ongoing data collection will continue to feed into the energy model, producing more accurate savings. &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">If the ECMs have been run in the model&nbsp;sequentially, then it is important to understand that&nbsp;the impact of&nbsp;the&nbsp;ECMs will decrease&nbsp;as&nbsp;the sequence&nbsp;progresses, and savings will be less than if they were directly compared to the initial baseline. This is because as each new ECM is executed and&nbsp;absorbed into the baseline model,&nbsp;this&nbsp;&ldquo;new&rdquo; baseline model&nbsp;against which new ECMs are compared&nbsp;performs&nbsp;more efficiently,&nbsp;thereby&nbsp;decreasing the potential for&nbsp;future&nbsp;savings.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong><em>Compare Mutually Exclusive ECMs </em> &nbsp;</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">In some&nbsp;cases,&nbsp;the team may develop mutually exclusive ECMs&nbsp;to improve a system&nbsp;which&nbsp;need to&nbsp;be compared in order to determine which is the most energy efficient and by how much. The energy model&nbsp;can be used to run&nbsp;multiple options&nbsp;and&nbsp;compare&nbsp;estimated energy savings&nbsp;between competing ECMs.&nbsp;It behooves the project team to decide which mutually exclusive ECMs&nbsp;should be&nbsp;adopted&nbsp;early on,&nbsp;as&nbsp;this&nbsp;will simplify later analyses.&nbsp;If&nbsp;ECMs are&nbsp;run sequentially in the energy model, each competing ECM&nbsp;splits the model and&nbsp;creates&nbsp;a different pathway for all subsequent ECMs, affecting&nbsp;associated savings.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong><em>Assess Technical Potential for Energy Savings</em>&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">The&nbsp;final energy consumption of the proposed model&nbsp;will factor in&nbsp;all&nbsp;the&nbsp;energy savings associated with the ECMs.&nbsp;This resulting value is the theoretical minimum energy consumption for the building, assuming all technically viable ECMs are implemented.&nbsp;At this point it is helpful to&nbsp;determine the percent reduction from the baseline and evaluate how this theoretical minimum stacks up&nbsp;with the project objectives.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Important questions to answer include: &nbsp;</span></p><ul><li><span style="color: #003366;">Does the theoretical minimum energy consumption meet or exceed the project&rsquo;s energy&nbsp;and carbon&nbsp;goals, and&nbsp;if so&nbsp;by how much?&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></li><li><span style="color: #003366;">Which ECMs contribute most significantly to the energy and carbon reductions and are they likely to be financially feasible? &nbsp;</span></li><li><span style="color: #003366;">Are most of the energy savings attributable to a few select ECMs or are energy savings spread evenly amongst many small measures? &nbsp;</span></li></ul><p><span style="color: #003366;">The analysis of the energy modeling results can be facilitated by the creation of ECM waterfall charts which show the baseline energy consumption / carbon emissions and the progressive impact of each ECM on these values. The final energy consumption and carbon emission of the proposed model will establish the theoretical minimum.&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong>LESSONS LEARNED &amp; KEY CONSIDERATIONS </strong> &nbsp;</span></p><ul><li><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Review and Question Surprising Results- </em></strong></span>When&nbsp;reviewing preliminary energy&nbsp;savings&nbsp;it is important&nbsp;to&nbsp;make sure that&nbsp;the&nbsp;results make sense and&nbsp;question&nbsp;any&nbsp;surprising results.&nbsp;The energy modeling results are only as&nbsp;accurate&nbsp;as the modeling inputs. These assumptions must be vetted to ensure&nbsp;accurate&nbsp;savings.&nbsp;Data collection during this time will be useful to&nbsp;determine modeling&nbsp;assumptions.&nbsp;Assumptions can also be informed by the insights and advice from industry experts.&nbsp;Energy modeling is an iterative process and the model will&nbsp;continue to&nbsp;be refined as more information is&nbsp;collected.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Identify&nbsp;High&nbsp;Priority&nbsp;ECMs</em> - </strong></span>Preliminary results may indicate&nbsp;that&nbsp;the majority of&nbsp;the energy savings available are attributable to a select number of ECMs.&nbsp;Implementing these select few ECMs may be all that is required to meet the project&rsquo;s short-term objectives.&nbsp;The project team should focus on refining the inputs for these high impact ECMs&nbsp;to ensure accurate savings.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Remember&nbsp;Many&nbsp;Small&nbsp;Measures&nbsp;Have a&nbsp;Cumulative&nbsp;Impact</em> - </strong></span>To maximize savings and meet long-term project objectives like 80x50 it is likely that a wider array of ECMs will need to be considered for implementation. This holds true especially for buildings that have undergone recent renovations where the most impactful ECMs have already been executed. In this case it may be necessary to evaluate the cumulative impact of many small measures. Therefore, individual measures with minor carbon reduction impacts should not be dismissed too quickly.&nbsp;</li></ul>

Analyze Individual ECMs


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In this task, the energy modeler will run all ECMs in the energy model and extract associated energy, carbon and cost savings for each. For this task, the energy modeler will need the baseline energy model and the finalized list of ECMs that will be evaluated.


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titleLearn more about analyzing ECMs

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titleINPUTS

For this task, the energy modeler will need the baseline energy model and the finalized list of ECMs that will be evaluated.  

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Develop a Modeling Strategy for Each Energy Conservation Measure (ECM) Before the modeler begins modeling each ECM, he/she/they should develop a modeling strategy for each measure including performance characteristics and any important assumptions. Documenting model inputs and modeling strategy for each ECM will make it easier to troubleshoot if there are any surprising results. 

Run ECMs in the Model and Analyze Results -Once all ECMs are explicitly defined and the modeling strategy has been finalized, the modeler will run each ECM to create a proposed energy model. The proposed energy model is what is compared to the baseline energy model to estimate energy, carbon and cost savings. The energy modeler will extract savings for each ECM from the proposed model, which will enable the team to study the individual impact of each ECM and vet the results. Energy savings for individual ECMs should be compared to industry experience to gauge their validity. When surprising results arise, the team must explore why and either justify the inputs or modify them according to additional information.    

Vornado PENN 1 2030 Energy Reduction per ECM

Refine and Troubleshoot as Needed - Assumptions may need to be revised after this initial review of the results, especially if there are unexpected results.  

Compare Mutually Exclusive ECMs - In some cases, the team may develop mutually exclusive ECMs. These competing ECMS must be compared to determine which is the most energy efficient and by what margin. The energy model can be used to run multiple ECM options and compare estimated energy savings between them. The project team should decide which mutually exclusive ECMs should be advanced into the future rounds of analysis before packaging ECM in the next phase of modeling. 

Assess Maximum Theoretical Potential for Energy Savings -The final energy consumption of the proposed model will factor in all the energy savings associated with the ECMs. This resulting value is the theoretical minimum energy consumption for the building, assuming all technically viable ECMs are implemented. At this point it is helpful to determine the percent reduction from the baseline and evaluate how this theoretical minimum stacks up to the project objectives. Important questions to answer include:   

  • Does the theoretical minimum energy consumption meet or exceed the project’s energy and carbon goals, and if so by how much?    
  • Which ECMs contribute most significantly to the energy and carbon reductions and are they likely to be financially feasible?   
  • Are most of the energy savings attributable to a few select ECMs or are energy savings spread evenly amongst many small measures?   

The analysis of the energy modeling results can be facilitated by the creation of ECM waterfall charts which show the baseline energy consumption / carbon emissions and the progressive impact of each ECM on these values. The final energy consumption and carbon emission of the proposed model will establish the theoretical minimum.   

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titleOUTPUTS

Outputs and deliverables of this work include: 

  • Initial energy, carbon and cost savings for individual ECMs. Based on this initial review and analysis, the team will identify further data collection required to refine the modeling assumptions and improve the accuracy of the outputs.  
  • Actionable information regarding which mutually exclusive ECMs are most impactful and should be advanced to the next phase of modeling. 
  • The maximum theoretical energy savings and carbon reduction for the building. This will give the project team an indication of how many ECMs may need to be implemented to meet the project objectives.  
  • Initial energy cost savings for each measure, which can be used to inform preliminary financial analyses.

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titleIN PRACTICE - CASE STUDY EXAMPLES

Playbook Partner 

Deliverables 

Empire State Building

Click here 

PENN 1 

Click here 

100 Avenue of the Americas

Click here

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titleLESSONS LEARNED & KEY CONSIDERATIONS
 

  • Review and question surprising results-When reviewing preliminary energy savings it is important to make sure that the results make sense and question any surprising results. The energy modeling results are only as accurate as the modeling inputs. These assumptions must be vetted to ensure accurate savings. Data collection during this time will be useful to determine modeling assumptions. Assumptions can also be informed by the insights and advice from industry experts. Energy modeling is an iterative process and the model will continue to be refined as more information is collected.  
  • Identify high priority ECMs - Preliminary results may indicate that the majority of the energy savings available are attributable to a select number of ECMs. Implementing these select few ECMs may be all that is required to meet the project’s short-term objectives. The project team should focus on refining the inputs for these high impact ECMs to ensure accurate savings.  
  • Remember many small measures have a cumulative impact - To maximize savings and meet long-term project objectives like 80x50 it is likely that a wider array of ECMs will need to be considered for implementation. This holds true especially for buildings that have undergone recent renovations where the most impactful ECMs have already been executed. In this case it may be necessary to evaluate the cumulative impact of many small measures. Therefore, individual measures with minor carbon reduction impacts should not be dismissed too quickly. 


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body<h1>Group, Sequence, and Package ECMs</h1><hr /><p><span style="color: #ff00ff;">From previous&quot;Group, Sequence, &amp; Package ECMs&quot; section</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Preliminary results from the financial analysis will help inform the final list of ECMs to be analyzed. ECMs should not be discarded based solely on their associated cost; expensive ECMs can be grouped together with related financially viable measures to optimize savings and make a more comprehensive business case that maximizes CO2 reduction while still meeting investment return hurdles. &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Once ECMs have been grouped,&nbsp;an implementation duration and timeline should be established for each.&nbsp;This will depend on factors like short term project budgets, tenant lease&nbsp;turnover,&nbsp;operational&nbsp;budgets,&nbsp;and maintenance schedules.&nbsp;The ECMs should then&nbsp;be sequenced according to their implementation timeline&nbsp;so that energy savings for each ECM can be&nbsp;captured accordingly.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Finally, several&nbsp;ECM&nbsp;packages should be assembled for owner evaluation. Each package will&nbsp;include&nbsp;a different combination of ECMs&nbsp;to be implemented&nbsp;with varying degrees of cost and carbon impact.&nbsp;This variety will give the owner options&nbsp;to choose from&nbsp;when striving to balance&nbsp;the&nbsp;project objectives&nbsp;and constraints. &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong>INPUTS </strong> &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Preliminary ECM&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Cost&nbsp;Savings and&nbsp;Capital&nbsp;Costs</em>&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Preliminary results from the&nbsp;financial analysis will&nbsp;provide approximate&nbsp;NPV values&nbsp;for each ECM based on the&nbsp;projected&nbsp;energy cost savings and&nbsp;capital costs.&nbsp;These results&nbsp;will&nbsp;be used to&nbsp;identify&nbsp;those&nbsp;ECMs&nbsp;that&nbsp;are economically viable&nbsp;on their own,&nbsp;those&nbsp;that&nbsp;are&nbsp;worth pursuing&nbsp;due to large carbon impact, and&nbsp;those that&nbsp;should be discarded at this point&nbsp;due to technical infeasibility, cost,&nbsp;or&nbsp;low carbon impact. Those ECMs that are economically viable on their own may be grouped together with&nbsp;related,&nbsp;and&nbsp;costly but effective ECMs&nbsp;to help build a&nbsp;holistic business case for system optimization. &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong>OUTPUTS&nbsp;</strong> &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">At this stage it is crucial to form an understanding of the cost, CO2 reduction potential, and technical challenges for each ECM and use this information to finalize and sequence the ECM list. This information is also used to create various packages with different combinations of ECMs proposed for implementation. This will result in several options for the owner to evaluate, which can be tailored to the project objectives for cost and carbon impact.</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong>ACTIVITIES </strong> &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Establish&nbsp;the&nbsp;Final&nbsp;List of ECMs</em> </strong> &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Once a preliminary financial analysis has been conducted and&nbsp;approximate NPV values&nbsp;and carbon emissions reductions&nbsp;are&nbsp;calculated&nbsp;for each ECM, the list of measures should be reviewed and refined.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">A helpful tool for analyzing&nbsp;results is a 2 x 2 matrix&nbsp;that shows the NPV vs. the CO 2 &nbsp;reductions for each ECM.&nbsp;Any ECMs that&nbsp;are cost&nbsp;prohibitive&nbsp;without significant carbon reduction impact should&nbsp;likely&nbsp;be eliminated.&nbsp;The remaining ECMs will fall into 3 categories: &nbsp;</span></p><ol><li><span style="color: #003366;">ECMs&nbsp;that&nbsp;have a positive NPV&nbsp;and have a large carbon impact &nbsp;</span></li><li><span style="color: #003366;">ECMs that&nbsp;have a positive NPV&nbsp;but have a minor carbon impact &nbsp;</span></li><li><span style="color: #003366;">ECMs that&nbsp;have a negative NPV&nbsp;(simple payback&nbsp;may still be within the useful life of the ECM)&nbsp;but&nbsp;have a large carbon impact &nbsp;</span></li></ol><p><span style="color: #003366;">The&nbsp;ECMs that fall into the first category are&nbsp;the primary candidates for implementation. The energy savings associated with these measures should be carefully reviewed against the base case to verify that they are not overestimated.&nbsp;It&nbsp;is&nbsp;critical that the operational base case is modeled accurately to&nbsp;get reasonable savings for these ECMs. &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">The ECMs that fall into the second category&nbsp;should be evaluated&nbsp;collectively&nbsp;with other measures,&nbsp;as the impact of many small measures can add up to be significant. In fact, implementation of these measures may be necessary to&nbsp;meet the LL97 emissions limits or other project objectives.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">The ECMs in the third category that do not seem to meet financial performance goals but have a large carbon impact should&nbsp; <em> not </em> &nbsp;be eliminated at this point. The incorporation of maintenance costs, baseline requirements&nbsp;or planned capex unrelated to emissions reductions, and potential incentives in the financial model may improve the financial performance. These ECMs can also be considered in tandem with other related ECMs that prove to be better performers and presented as a group of measures to be implemented together in order to improve the carbon impact.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Once all ECMs have been sorted into buckets, it is important to look broadly at all options and deeply at individual measures to assess their feasibility. At this point there may still be a few ECMs that fall into a fourth category, which are those that are proven to be technically infeasible. While certain measures may initially seem promising, they must ultimately be implementable in the building in order to achieve the theoretical savings. Some ECMs that previously seemed viable may prove to be technically challenging and cost prohibitive after gaining greater familiarity with the building systems. The final list of ECMs must be grounded in reality and tailored to the building.</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong><em>Group and Sequence the ECMs</em> </strong> &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Once the list of ECMs has been finalized,&nbsp;it is necessary to determine&nbsp;the anticipated duration of time required for completion&nbsp;and the implementation sequence.&nbsp;This will depend on how the ECM will be implemented and by which&nbsp;party.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">For instance, many controls&nbsp;and&nbsp;central&nbsp;system&nbsp;optimizations&nbsp;can be completed in a short period of time by the base building facilities&nbsp;team&nbsp;and should be implemented early.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Other projects in the tenant spaces&nbsp;may be more appropriately completed at the time of tenant lease renewal when the owner is able to update&nbsp;contracts&nbsp;and uphold more stringent standards.&nbsp;This will also reduce costs associated with general conditions and management.&nbsp;These ECMs will&nbsp;therefore&nbsp;be implemented gradually&nbsp;over a longer period&nbsp;as staggered leases are renewed.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Large base building projects&nbsp;that require significant capital investments may be delayed&nbsp;in alignment with the maintenance schedule or&nbsp;until there is a necessity to&nbsp;replace equipment.&nbsp;The timing of implementation will be unique to each building and vary depending on the types of&nbsp;existing&nbsp;systems and&nbsp;their&nbsp;age&nbsp;and performance.&nbsp;Well maintained systems&nbsp;may be able to be updated and optimized in the short term and replaced in the long run depending on the&nbsp;project objectives. &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Interrelated and codependent ECMs should&nbsp;have&nbsp;the same&nbsp;timeline&nbsp;and/or be sequenced appropriately.&nbsp;Some ECMs should be&nbsp;considered as a group&nbsp;to&nbsp;help&nbsp;make a financial case for optimized carbon reductions.&nbsp;These ECM groupings and ordering will be used to establish a&nbsp;chronological&nbsp;modeling sequence&nbsp;and will ultimately impact the energy savings attributable to each individual ECM.&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;savings results&nbsp;should still be provided at the ECM level to allow for detailed analysis of the&nbsp;viability of each measure.</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong><em>Create ECM Packages</em>&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Once the ECMs have been sequenced, various implementation packages should be&nbsp;compiled&nbsp;for final evaluation. Given that&nbsp;implementing all ECMs will likely be cost prohibitive, it is necessary to&nbsp;provide the owner with different options along the spectrum of&nbsp;project cost and&nbsp;carbon&nbsp;reduction.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">To book end the problem, it is recommended that two of the packages be a &ldquo;CO<sub>2</sub> Maximum Reduction&rdquo; package and an &ldquo;NPV Maximum&rdquo; package. The CO<sub>2</sub> &nbsp;Max package will include all technically viable measures, even if they are not economically viable at the time of the analysis. The purpose of this package is to find the technical maximum CO<sub>2</sub> reductions achievable. The NPV Max package will include only those measures that payback within the study period and have positive NPV values. These are the minimum CO<sub>2</sub> &nbsp;reductions that can be expected with a financially viable package. Additional packages should be created and evaluated which exclude certain ECMs due to high absolute costs and/or high cost per tCO<sub>2</sub>e saved. These hybrid packages will allow the owner to optimize the CO<sub>2</sub> savings achieved for a given investment.&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p>

Group, Sequence, and Package ECMs


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As the Energy and Carbon Modeling phase is progressing, a preliminary financial analysis of individual ECMs will also take place in parallel. Preliminary results from the financial analysis will help inform this phase of modeling. Individual ECMs should not necessarily be discarded based solely on their associated capital cost; expensive ECMs can be grouped together with related financially viable measures to optimize savings and make a more comprehensive business case that maximizes CO2 reduction while still addressing investment return hurdles.   

Once ECMs have been grouped, an implementation duration and timeline should be established for each. This will depend on factors like short term project budgets, tenant lease turnover, operational budgets, and maintenance schedules. The ECMs should then be sequenced according to their implementation timeline so that energy savings for each ECM can be captured accordingly.  

Finally, several ECM packages should be assembled for owner evaluation. Each package will include a different combination of ECMs to be implemented with varying degrees of cost and carbon impact. This variety will provide the owner with options to choose from when striving to balance the project objectives and constraints.

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titleLearn more about grouping, sequencing and packaging ECMs

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titleINPUTS

For this task the project team will need the following inputs: 

  • Energy, carbon & cost savings from the proposed energy model 
  • Preliminary ECM capital costs estimates -Preliminary results from the financial analysis will provide approximate NPV values for each ECM based on the projected energy cost savings and capital costs. These results will be used to identify those ECMs that are economically viable on their own, those that are worth pursuing due to large carbon impact, and those that should be discarded at this point due to technical infeasibility, cost, or low carbon impact. Those ECMs that are economically viable on their own may be grouped together with related, and costly, but effective, ECMs to help build a stronger business case.

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Outputs and deliverables of this task include the following: 

  • Finalized grouped and sequenced ECM list.  
  • Results from Packaged ECMS for Owner consideration. 

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Establish the Final List of ECMs - Once a preliminary financial analysis has been conducted and approximate NPV values and energy and reductions are calculated for each ECM, the list of measures should be reviewed and finalized. Typically, ECMs will fall into 5 categories:  

Category Outcome 
ECM has a positive NPV and has a large carbon impact    

ECM should be considered seriously for implementation. Additional QA/QC should be completed to ensure savings are accurate. 

ECMs that has a positive NPV but has a minor carbon impactECM should be evaluated collectively with other measures, as the impact of many small measures can compound. 
ECM has a positive NPV and has a large carbon impact but is technically challenging or infeasibleECM should likely be eliminated because it will not seriously be considered for implementation by the Owner or building operations team
ECM has a negative NPV (simple payback may still be within the useful life of the ECM) but has a large carbon impactFinancial case for the ECM should be investigated further - the incorporation of maintenance costs, baseline requirements or planned capex unrelated to emissions reductions, and potential incentives in the financial model may improve the financial performance. 
ECM has a negative NPV and a small carbon impact.  ECM should be eliminated.  


Group and Sequence the ECMs  - Once the list of ECMs has been finalized, the project team should determine the anticipated duration of time required for completion and the implementation sequence. There are various considerations that should be understood during this part of the modeling process: 

  • The timing of implementation will be unique to each building and vary depending on the types of existing systems and their age and performance. Well maintained systems may be able to be updated and optimized in the short term and replaced in the long run depending on the project objectives.   
  • The sequence of ECMs will depend on various factors including tenant lease turnover schedules, maintenance schedules, and investment cycles. 
  • Interrelated and codependent ECMs should have the same timeline and/or be sequenced appropriately. Some ECMs should be considered as a group to help make a financial case for optimized carbon reductions. 
  • The impact of the ECMs will decrease as the sequence progresses, and savings will be less than if they were directly compared to the initial baseline. This is because as each new ECM is executed and absorbed into the baseline model, this “new” baseline model against which new ECMs are compared performs more efficiently, thereby decreasing the potential for savings. 

Create ECM Packages -Once the ECMs have been sequenced, various implementation packages should be compiled for final evaluation. Given that implementing all ECMs will likely be cost prohibitive, the project team should provide the owner with different options along the spectrum of project cost and carbon reduction.    

To book end the problem, it is recommended that two of the proposed packages be a “CO2 Maximum Reduction” package and an “NPV Maximum” package. 

Package Description 
CO2 Max Reduction 

Package includes all technically viable measures, even if they are not economically viable at the time of the analysis. The purpose of this package is to find the technical maximum CO2 reductions achievable. 

NPV MaximumPackage includes only those measures that payback within the study period and have positive NPVs. These are the minimum CO2  reductions that can be expected with a financially viable package. 

Additional packages should be created and evaluated based on feedback from the project team. These hybrid packages will allow the owner to choose from a wide range of options with different value propositions. 

ESRT ESB Relationship between Carbon Reductions and Net Present Value in ECM Packages




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titleIN PRACTICE - CASE STUDY EXAMPLES

Playbook Partner 

Deliverables 

Empire State Building

Click here  

PENN 1

Click here 

100 Avenue of the Americas

Click here

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titleLESSONS LEARNED & KEY CONSIDERATIONS

  • Visualize the results - A helpful tool for analyzing ECMs results is a 2 x 2 matrix that shows the NPV vs. the CO2 reductions for each ECM. 
  • Consider non-energy benefits – Before eliminating measures because they have small carbon impacts, the project team should evaluate the non-energy benefits of the measure. If the non-energy benefits align with the owner’s overall sustainability strategy or make the building a more valuable asset, the building team may still wish to pursue the item. For example, a façade upgrade or replacement may not have a positive NVP but will make the building more competitive with newer buildings.  

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body<h1>Generate Decarbonization Roadmap</h1><hr /><p><span style="color: #ff00ff;">from previous &quot;High Resolution Energy Modeling &amp; CO2 Analysis&quot; section</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">Once the final list of ECMs has been curated and the ECMs have been grouped, sequenced, and packaged, the energy model can be run to obtain final results. These results will be used to conduct the detail financial analysis that will inform which ECMs are ultimately implemented.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">The final energy modeling results will include energy savings, energy cost, and CO<sub>2</sub>&nbsp;reduction for each measure and each package under study.&nbsp;These results should be post-processed according to the anticipated implementation timeline to reflect the gradual&nbsp;and overlapping&nbsp;impacts of each ECM&nbsp;for each year of the study period.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">CO<sub>2</sub> reduction can be evaluated using the carbon coefficients of today&rsquo;s grid, but these values will likely change over time as decarbonization of the grid progresses. It is unknown to what extent the grid will contribute to carbon reduction beyond the information that has been published as a part of LL97. The ESB Case Study provides 3 possible grid pathways which can be applied to the building&rsquo;s results as a reference.</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong>INPUTS</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">In order to get final results for the energy savings, energy cost, and CO<sub>2</sub>&nbsp;reduction, the energy modeler&nbsp;must receive a finalized&nbsp;list of ECMs which have been&nbsp;sequenced&nbsp;according to the intended implementation timeline.&nbsp;The modeler may also receive several packages of ECMs to&nbsp;run, which are different combinations of ECMs that may be ultimately implemented.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Carbon&nbsp;Coefficients for&nbsp;Future&nbsp;Grid</em> </strong> &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">While the carbon coefficients of the grid today are known, and Local Law 97 (LL97) includes anticipated carbon coefficients for the years 2024-2029, the coefficients beyond this timeline are uncertain. The electrical carbon coefficient in particular will vary based on the rate of decarbonization of the future grid.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong>OUTPUTS</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">The final energy modeling results should include energy savings, energy cost savings, and CO<sub>2</sub> &nbsp;reduction for each ECM in each package studied.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong>ACTIVITIES</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">The modeler should update&nbsp;his/her&nbsp;model based on the&nbsp;final&nbsp;list of ECMs and intended implementation&nbsp;sequence.&nbsp;Energy results should be provided for each ECM, even if there are several ECMs that are intended to be grouped together,&nbsp;as this provides granular data for the financial analysis to be conducted down the line.&nbsp;This is important because each ECM&nbsp;may&nbsp;have&nbsp;distinct&nbsp;capital costs, maintenance costs, and incentive&nbsp;implications&nbsp;which may impact the financial viability of the measure.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">For the purposes of&nbsp;reducing&nbsp;the modeling time, it may be assumed that a given ECM&rsquo;s savings are recognized at once, even if it is anticipated that the ECM and associated savings will be realized over a period of several years. These savings&nbsp;can be split proportionally according to the intended timeline in&nbsp;a&nbsp;post-processing&nbsp;exercise&nbsp;without a major impact to the results, so long as&nbsp;the sequence&nbsp;of the ECMs&nbsp;is correct.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">The modeler may need to run&nbsp;various versions of the model representing each package to be studied. In this case, certain ECMs will be toggled &ldquo;off&rdquo; depending on&nbsp;whether or not&nbsp;they are&nbsp;included in a given package.</span></p><ac:structured-macro ac:name="expand" ac:schema-version="1" ac:macro-id="5be192d1-8d94-4ea5-bebf-1de80a4bf16d"><ac:parameter ac:name="title">VNO Case Study Example</ac:parameter><ac:rich-text-body><p><span style="color: #003366;">Vornado and JB&amp;B studied the feasibility of implementing each ECM based on tenant disruption and capital investment. The below table shows the lesson learned of this study and the resulting measures that made the most technical and economic sense to reach 2030 targets.</span></p><p><ac:image ac:height="250"><ri:attachment ri:filename="Vornado_Penn1 Decarb Plan.png" /></ac:image></p><p><span style="color: #993366;"> <span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="text-decoration: none;"> <span class="NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="color: #003366;">As part of this study, the Team used the high-resolution energy model to design a thermal dispatch strategy </span></span><span style="color: #003366;"><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="text-decoration: none;"><span class="NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741">to meet the daily heat demand. This is illustrated&nbsp; in the following graphs. The</span>&nbsp;</span><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="text-decoration: none;"><span class="NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741">strategy consists of layering the heating capacity from</span>&nbsp;</span><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="text-decoration: none;"><span class="NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741">different heat sources in order of availability and from least to most carbon </span></span><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="text-decoration: none;"><span class="NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741">intensive. As heating capacity from recovered and electrical sources reaches a limit, fossil fuel sources are engaged to meet the remaining demand. </span></span><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="text-decoration: none;"><span class="NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741">&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p><p><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="color: #000000; text-decoration: none;"><span class="NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741"><ac:image ac:height="250"><ri:attachment ri:filename="Vornado _ thermaldispatchstrategy1.PNG" /></ac:image> &nbsp;<ac:image ac:height="250"><ri:attachment ri:filename="Vornado _ thermaldispatchstrategy3.PNG" /></ac:image> <ac:image ac:height="250"><ri:attachment ri:filename="Vornado _ thermaldispatchstrategy4.PNG" /></ac:image> </span></span></p><p><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="color: #000000; text-decoration: none;"><span class="NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741"><ac:image ac:height="250"><ri:attachment ri:filename="Vornado _ thermaldispatchstrategy5.PNG" /></ac:image> <ac:image ac:height="250"><ri:attachment ri:filename="Vornado _ thermaldispatchstrategy6.PNG" /></ac:image> <ac:image ac:height="250"><ri:attachment ri:filename="Vornado _ thermaldispatchstrategy7.PNG" /></ac:image> <br /></span> </span></p><p><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none;"><span class="NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741"><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="text-decoration: none;">In the long-term, new low carbon heating capacity can be phased&nbsp;in as fossil fuel sources </span><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="text-decoration: none;">reaches end-of-life</span><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="text-decoration: none;">. When the building is 100% electric, no more cogen waste steam nor district steam are available resources. This gap can be met with thermal storage.</span></span></span></p><p><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="color: #000000; text-decoration: none;"><span class="NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741"><span style="color: #993366;"><span class="TextRun BCX0 SCXP161796741" style="text-decoration: none;"><ac:image ac:height="250"><ri:attachment ri:filename="Vornado_Penn1 Thermal Dispatch_Full Electric.png" /></ac:image></span></span></span></span></p></ac:rich-text-body></ac:structured-macro><p><br /></p><ac:structured-macro ac:name="expand" ac:schema-version="1" ac:macro-id="10ff7ada-ac4f-4e6e-b06f-fef7c29038f2"><ac:parameter ac:name="title">VNO Case Study Example</ac:parameter><ac:rich-text-body><p><span style="color: #003366;">The Full Electrification package creates the best scenario for Penn One to become carbon neutral by 2040, with the assumption that the grid-wide electricity is sourced from non-fossil fuel burning plants; however, the Beneficial Electrification package offers a more favorable financial outlook and can be more feasibly attained in the near term.</span></p><p><ac:image ac:height="250"><ri:attachment ri:filename="Vornado_Decarbonization Strategies.png" /></ac:image><ac:image ac:height="250"><ri:attachment ri:filename="Vornado_Decarb Scenarios Modeling Results.png" /></ac:image></p></ac:rich-text-body></ac:structured-macro><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong><em>Total Energy Consumption Savings</em> </strong><span> </span><span>&nbsp;</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">The energy model will output the resulting energy consumption associated with each ECM which can be subtracted from the baseline to calculate the energy savings for each measure. These savings by fuel source are used to calculate the carbon emissions reductions associated with each ECM. &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Total&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Cost&nbsp;Savings</em>&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">While the energy model&nbsp;is able to&nbsp;provide energy costs for each run, it may be beneficial to conduct advanced tariff analysis that evaluates the anticipated annual hourly energy consumption for each package. Given the energy consumption results from the model, and the implementation timeline, a composite file of hourly data can be created to accurately reflect the percentage of each ECM that has been implemented&nbsp;in a given year. This will result in an energy consumption profile that reflects the expected peak and demand charges for each year.&nbsp;More accurate utility costs can be calculated using this information. At a minimum,&nbsp;a utility cost escalator should be applied to&nbsp;the&nbsp;initial calculated&nbsp;energy cost savings to capture the impact of&nbsp;changing rates over time.&nbsp;See workstream 4 for more information on calculating energy cost savings. &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Total&nbsp;Carbon&nbsp;Emissions&nbsp;Reductions</em>&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">The anticipated CO2&nbsp;emissions reductions associated with each ECM can be calculated by overlaying today&rsquo;s carbon coefficients onto the energy savings results. For a greater&nbsp;level of accuracy, the carbon coefficients from LL97 can be&nbsp;overlaid&nbsp;on the annual energy consumption for the years where this data is available (2024-2029) and beyond - assuming the electrical grid will continue to improve and all other carbon coefficients (e.g., steam, gas, fuel) will remain static.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;">The project team may also consider different electrical grid decarbonization projections in their analysis and overlay evolving carbon coefficients associated with these projections on the yearly energy consumption. For example, New York&rsquo;s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) targets 70% renewable energy by 2030.&nbsp;Assuming&nbsp;the grid meets the goals and schedule of the&nbsp;CLPCA&nbsp;the&nbsp;carbon coefficient for&nbsp;electricity for&nbsp;the year 2030&nbsp;will be much lower than it is today. When analyzing carbon emissions, it is important to consider the additional carbon reductions that may be achieved through decarbonization of the grid&nbsp;in order to&nbsp;calculate the total estimated carbon reductions. While projections can be used for the time being, these coefficients will eventually be informed by the coefficients in LL97. &nbsp;</span></p><ac:structured-macro ac:name="expand" ac:schema-version="1" ac:macro-id="f5955c6b-ebaf-4b6c-b835-7833d245aa56"><ac:parameter ac:name="title">ESB Case Study Example</ac:parameter><ac:rich-text-body><p><span style="color: #003366;">In the ESB Case Study, advanced grid modeling was conducted to estimate what the&nbsp;electrical&nbsp;grid coefficients will be from the years 2020-2040&nbsp;given three different pathways: static grid (no further decarbonization),&nbsp;moderate&nbsp;decarbonization grid projection&nbsp;(70% of CLCPA targets achieved), and aggressive decarbonization grid projection (in alignment with the CLCPA targets).&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: #ff0000;"> <ac:image ac:width="600"><ri:attachment ri:filename="ESRT_W2-7_Figure 1.PNG" /></ac:image> </span></p><p><span style="color: #003366;"> <em>Figure </em><em>- ESB 2.0 Case Study - Electrical Carbon Coefficient Projections</em></span></p></ac:rich-text-body></ac:structured-macro><p><span style="color: #003366;"><strong>LESSONS LEARNED &amp; KEY CONSIDERATIONS </strong><span> </span><span>&nbsp;</span></span></p><ul><li><span style="color: #003366;"><strong> <em>Total&nbsp;Carbon&nbsp;Emissions&nbsp;Depend on the&nbsp;Building and the&nbsp;Grid</em> </strong>&nbsp;- </span>While building owners have control over how efficient their building is, they cannot control or predict (at this time) the long-term decarbonization of the electrical grid. Building owners can and should evaluate how they can optimize the energy performance of their building through the implementation of ECMs, but the total associated carbon emissions will depend not only on the magnitude of the energy consumed, but also on the source of that energy. For this reason, it is beneficial to understand how different grid scenarios and emissions factors impact the ECM results. A cleaner grid in 2030 may be the difference between meeting or exceeding the LL97 emissions limit for that year. It is therefore important for the project team to understand how different grid scenarios impact the results and question whether different ECMs should be implemented based on these analyses.</li></ul>

Generate a Decarbonization Roadmap


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Once the finalized ECMs have been grouped, sequenced, and packaged, the energy model can be run to obtain final results. These results will be used in the detailed financial analysis and will represent a time-dependent decarbonization roadmap for the building. The final results will include energy savings, energy cost, and CO2reduction for each package under study, and should phased according to the anticipated implementation timeline to reflect the gradual and overlapping impacts of each measure over a 20- or 30-year time horizon.  CO2 reduction over a longer time horizon should include a changing electric grid carbon coefficient to account for grid decarbonization. 


ESB 2.0 Case Study - Electrical Carbon Coefficient Projections

Figure - ESB 2.0 Case Study - Electrical Carbon Coefficient Projections


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titleLearn more about generating a decarbonization roadmap

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titleINPUTS

The inputs for this task include: 

  • The finalized ECM Packages 
  • Carbon coefficients for the Future Grid 

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titleACTIVITIES

Run Final ECM Packages in the Model and Analyze Results -The modeler should update the proposed model based on the final list of ECM packages and intended implementation sequence. Energy results should be provided for each ECM, even if there are several ECMs that are intended to be grouped together, as this provides granular data for the financial analysis to be conducted down the line. This is important because each ECM may have distinct capital costs, maintenance costs, and incentive implications which may impact the financial viability of the measure.     

For the purposes of reducing the modeling time, it may be assumed that a given ECM’s savings are recognized at once, even if it is anticipated that the ECM and associated savings will be realized over a period of several years. These savings can be split proportionally according to the intended timeline in a post-processing exercise without a major impact to the results, so long as the sequence of the ECMs is correct.    

Calculate Savings from the Baseline - The final run of the proposed energy model will produce energy, carbon and cost information that should be compared to the baseline energy model to determine anticipated savings. During this exercise, project teams should consider the following:  

  • The energy model provides energy costs for each run, but it may be beneficial to conduct advanced tariff analysis that evaluates the anticipated annual hourly energy consumption for each package. Given the energy consumption results from the model, and the implementation timeline, a composite file of hourly data can be created to accurately reflect the percentage of each ECM that has been implemented each year. This will result in an energy consumption profile that reflects the expected annual peak and associated demand charges. More accurate utility costs can be calculated using this information. At a minimum, a utility cost escalator should be applied to the initial calculated energy cost savings to capture the impact of changing rates over time.  
  • The anticipated CO2 emissions reductions associated with each ECM can be calculated by overlaying today’s carbon coefficients onto the energy savings results. For a greater level of accuracy, the carbon coefficients from LL97 can be overlaid on the annual energy consumption for the years where this data is available (2024-2029). Beyond 2029, project teams should consider different electrical grid decarbonization projections and overlay evolving carbon coefficients on the yearly energy consumption. For example, New York’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) targets 70% renewable energy by 2030. Assuming the grid meets the goals and schedule of the CLPCA, the carbon coefficient for electricity for the year 2030 will be much lower than it is today.   

ESRT ESB CO2 Mid Package Carbon Emissions Reduction by Phase

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titleOUTPUTS

The final energy modeling results should include energy savings, energy cost savings, and CO2  reduction for each ECM package studied.  

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titleIN PRACTICE - CASE STUDY EXAMPLES

Playbook Partner 

Deliverables 

Empire State Building 

Click here  

PENN 1 

Click here

100 Avenue of the Americas 

Click here 

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titleLESSONS LEARNED & KEY CONSIDERATIONS
 

  • Total carbon emissions depend on the building and the grid  - While building owners have control over how efficient their building is, they cannot control the long-term decarbonization of the electrical grid. Building owners can and should evaluate how they can optimize the energy performance of their building through the implementation of ECMs, but the total associated carbon emissions produced by the building will depend on both the magnitude of the energy consumed and how carbon-intensive the source of energy is. For this reason, it is beneficial to understand how different grid scenarios and emissions factors impact the ECM results. A cleaner grid in 2030 may be the difference between meeting or exceeding the LL97 emissions limit for that year. 


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